2024 NFL Futures: Cardinals have path to NFC West title, according to SportsLine Projection Model

Since winning the NFC West title in 2015, the Arizona Cardinals have had more than their share of struggles. They have only qualified for the playoffs once in the last eight years, when they went 11-6 in 2021 – their only season with a record above .500 during that span – but lost to their division rival, the Los Angeles Rams, in the wilderness. card trick.

Arizona finished with double-digit losing totals in four of the last six campaigns and entered 2024 having posted a 4-13 record each of the previous two years. The team has four wins already this season, and given the current state of the NFC West, they have a very real chance of winning the division crown.

The defending conference champions, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, are also 4-4 through the first eight weeks of the campaign, while the Rams are 3-4. The Cardinals have won both of their division games so far, beating Los Angeles 41-10 in Week 2 and rallying to a 24-23 win at San Francisco three weeks later after trailing 23-10 at the half-time.

This triumph marked the start of the current streak in which Arizona has won three of four competitions. After a 34-13 road loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Cardinals beat the Los Angeles Chargers 17-15 in Week 7 on a field goal as time expired and trailed the Miami Dolphins by nine points in the fourth quarter before leaving with a 28-27 road victory.

One reason for Arizona’s improved performance so far in 2024 is the play of quarterback Kyler Murray. The first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Murray has been solid if not spectacular, throwing for 1,638 yards with 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions while rushing for 334 yards – third among all NFL quarterbacks – and a pair of scores.

Murray, 27, who missed the final four games of the 2022 season and the first nine of 2023 due to a torn ACL, forms a strong bond with rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Selected with the fourth overall pick of this year’s draft. , Harrison, 22, leads the Cardinals — and is tied for fourth in the league — with five touchdown catches and is second on the club with 411 yards on 26 receptions.

Harrison recorded the NFL’s best performance to date in the win over the Rams, catching four passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He posted his second career 100-yard effort last weekend, when he finished with 111 yards — as well as a touchdown — on six catches at Miami.

Tight end Trey McBride was also a major contributor to the Cardinals aerial attack. Although he has yet to find the end zone, the 24-year-old is the team leader in both receptions (42) and receiving yards (446) despite missing one game this year .

Meanwhile, running back James Conner is on pace to record his second straight 1,000-yard season. The 29-year-old, who totaled 1,040 rushing yards last season, gained 557 on 129 carries over Arizona’s first eight games while adding four scoring runs.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Cardinals enter Week 9 with a 15.2% chance of finishing atop the NFC West this year. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s highest-rated picks since its inception, says San Francisco takes the crown 51 percent. of cases, Seattle wins the title in 25.5% of cases. simulations and the Rams prevail in 8.3% of them.

Of the four teams, Arizona has the most favorable schedule going forward. In addition to their four remaining division matchups, the Cardinals will have tough matchups against the Chicago Bears (4-3) and Minnesota Vikings (5-2), but they will also face some of the weakest clubs in the NFL against the Carolina Panthers (1-7). ), New York Jets (2-6) and New England Patriots (2-6).

Arizona has already faced the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (6-2) and two of the NFC North’s powers in Green Bay (6-2) and the first-place Detroit Lions (6-1). . The 49ers still have games against these three clubs, the Seahawks have to face the Packers and the Vikings, and the Rams have the Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) on the horizon.

Los Angeles travels to Seattle in Week 9, with the Seahawks’ chances of winning the division title increasing to 32% with a win and the Rams’ chances to 15% with a triumph, according to the model. His simulations also indicate that the Cardinals’ chances of winning the NFC West improve to 22% if they beat the Bears at home on Sunday, but drop to 8% if Chicago emerges victorious.

The model calls for a close competition between the Cardinals and Bears. But this isn’t one of five games with Grade A picks based on mock models for the ninth week of the season. You can find these top NFL Week 9 picks at SportsLine.