College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction: Ohio State vs. 12-seed, Miami vs. Texas A&M, First Round Highlight
Texas A&M coach Mike Elko made one of the boldest decisions in college football this season in the second half of Saturday’s win over LSU, sending starting quarterback Conner Weigman to the bench in favor of Marcel Reed for a change of pace — and the Aggies are now one of the surprising favorites in the SEC and have currently a compelling first-round matchup in my College Football Playoff bracket projections.
Notre Dame, the only team to beat the Aggies this fall, recorded another milestone victory after throttling previously undefeated Navy by conceding very early on the multiple errors of the aspirants to escape into a national level clash that was never competitive. I see the Fighting Irish as in the CFP with some margin.
Although I have waning confidence in Ohio State after surviving the Nebraska War upset bid to Columbus despite being 25.5 point favorite, I still think the committee can still value them over Texas — which would conveniently avoid a Big Ten first-round game between Ohio State and Indiana, even though the committee says it doesn’t care. ‘he must schedule rematches (uh-huh, Of course). Indiana and Ohio State will play Nov. 23 in Columbus. Regardless, we currently have Ohio State as a No. 5 seed and Boise State as a No. 12 seed in the first round.
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Our projections, which we’ve made every week this season and which should get really interesting as the committee prepares to reveal its first rankings on November 5, differ slightly from those of the sports betting markets. Georgia is the +340 favorite to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders for the CFP title include Ohio State at +425, Oregon +475 and Texas at +475, according to the latest Caesars odds. In our projected group, we have Oregon at No. 1 after the Ducks continued to get stronger following Saturday’s blowout win over Illinois. When you sign up with Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to one $1,000 first bet returned as a bonus bet. Use promo code “CBS1000” to take advantage of this offer.
Projected exclusions in the College Football Playoff
1. Oregon
Big Ten Champion
The Ducks scored touchdowns on all but one possession in the first half against the Fighting Illini and sent Illinois home feeling hurt after a fast-paced thrashing at Autzen Stadium. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel punctuated his Heisman bid with four total touchdowns before halftime. Oregon is the best team in the country and, as of now, deserves the top spot in this CFP projection.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +475
2. Georgia
SEC Champion
Kirby Smart’s team was clearly motivated to play its best on defense in last week’s win over Texas as the Bulldogs shut down one of the SEC’s most talented offenses. They will play in Jacksonville, Florida against the rival Florida Gators in Week 10 and will be in excellent position to play in the conference championship game by winning (at Ole Miss, Tennessee).
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +340
3. Clemson
ACC Champion
Winner of six straight games and undefeated in ACC play, you can guarantee Tigers coach Dabo Swinney watched Pittsburgh take on Syracuse during its open week, taking notes on the undefeated football team from Pat Narduzzi. Clemson travels to face the Panthers on Nov. 16, but will first need to face Louisville and Virginia Tech over the next two weeks to keep pace with conference-leading Miami.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +1600
4. BYU
Big 12 Champion
Oddsmakers got us thinking in Orlando: Why were the Cougars underdogs against struggling UCF? BYU took a 17-point lead before pulling away in the third quarter. Iowa State is the betting favorite to win the Big 12, but we’ve been circling BYU as a No. 4 seed for weeks and won’t stray far from what was predicted until the Cougars falter . The remaining schedule is the most favorable among Big 12 title hopefuls and BYU already has a win over Kansas State, one of four teams still in contention to win the league.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +11000
Projected CFP first round matches
5. Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State (in Columbus)
Winner plays #4 BYU
About the Buckeyes: The offensive line woes are concerning for the Buckeyes. Ohio State failed to find any success on the field against Nebraska and trailed early in the fourth quarter, at home, in what amounted to a must-win game. Day lost his composure after a targeted call in the final moments, but the Ohio State defense came up with an interception to preserve the victory. This one-loss team plays with enormous pressure and it shows.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +425
About the Broncos: The Broncos now have the two toughest games on their schedule behind them. Friday’s win at UNLV was crucial to all Group of Five playoff scenarios and Boise State came out on top with a game-winning possession in the fourth quarter.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +10000
6. Texas vs. Indiana No. 11 (in Austin)
The winner plays. No. 3 Clemson
About the Longhorns: Lack of thrust from an underperforming offensive line and a few turnovers by Quinn Ewers kept the Longhorns from pulling away from Vanderbilt on the road. But in the SEC, winning trumps looking good, and Texas put an end to the matter. The Commodores were the last national-level opponent on Steve Sarkisian’s team roster before facing Texas A&M on November 30. This will be one of the most anticipated contests in the history of the Lonestar State rivalry with the Aggies.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +475
About the Hoosiers: Curt Cignetti had his team prepared to play well against Washington despite quarterback Kurtis Rourke recovering from an injury. We mentioned earlier this month that it was time to consider the undefeated Hoosiers a serious threat for the Big Ten title and they will be favored in three of their final four games. The trip to Ohio State next month could decide who plays top-ranked Oregon in the league championship game unless chaos ensues.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +4000
7. Miami vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (at Coral Gables)
The winner faces Georgia, No. 2
About hurricanes: Thirty-six points without a touchdown from Cam Ward? That’s how deadly this Miami offense can be when the running game is humming. The Hurricanes easily knocked off rival Florida State and, for the first time in a month, played an ACC opponent without any late-game drama.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +1800
About the Aggies: No team in college football saw a bigger boost in national championship hopes in Week 9 than the Aggies, who switched to quarterback Marcel Reed in the third quarter and never looked back during ‘an important victory against LSU. Texas A&M will be on alert next week at South Carolina, one of the last remaining hurdles before the highly anticipated finale at Kyle Field against Texas.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +2400
8. Penn State vs. No. 10 Notre Dame (at Happy Valley)
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon
About Penn State: It’s never easy to win at Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium, especially when you’ve lost your starting quarterback and find yourself trailing at halftime. It was Penn State’s third quality road win this season, joining expected bowl teams West Virginia and USC. The game-changing moment against the Badgers came in the third quarter when Penn State’s Jaylen Reed stepped in front of an errant pass and returned it 19 yards for a touchdown.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +1200
About Notre-Dame: The navy was supposed be a test for the Fighting Irish, but the Midshipmen coughed it up too often at MetLife Stadium — an unusual move from a team that usually protects the football as part of its option-based offense. Notre Dame has the look of an 11-win team, but to get there, Marcus Freeman and Co. will have to beat Army and USC next month, among others.
Odds of winning the CFP, via Césars: +3000
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals will be played this year at the following bowl sites: Fiesta (December 31), Rose (January 1), Sugar (January 1) and Peach (January 1). Among the notable ties in the expanded playoffs, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the top-ranked SEC or Big 12 team through the quarters, so second-seeded Georgia would play New Orleans.