Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State program is hitting rock bottom, which means he better get comfortable with change
No one was better positioned to take advantage of a new look Big 12 than Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys reported the fourth-most production in the country after a season in which they surprised many by reaching the championship game of the Big 12. They were old. Their starting offensive line averaged 24 years old! They had a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Ollie Gordon — who was the highest-ranked player in this summer’s College Football 25 — and a defense that expected to be much better in year two under direction of defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo, especially with 10 starters. back.
Things started off well with wins over South Dakota State and Arkansas in places where Mike Gundy’s teams had struggled at times. An old and experienced team entered the Big 12 at 3-0.
Then came the disconcerting collapse.
Oklahoma State has lost its final nine games of the 2024 season, including an embarrassing 52-0 loss to Colorado on Friday – the largest margin of defeat since the maverick Gundy took the sidelines at his alma mater in 2005.
What happened and what does it mean for 57-year-old Gundy’s future? Let’s dive in:
What went wrong
Well, the defense couldn’t stop anyone. It’s neither sordid nor salacious but that’s where you have to start.
Maybe returning production doesn’t always mean good production? At least that’s what I remember about Oklahoma State’s difficulties. The Cowboys finished the 2023 season ranked 123rd nationally in yards allowed per play. Then, almost all of those starters returned with just two reinforcements (CB Kobe Hylton and Edge Obi Ezeigbo) from the transfer portal.
Sometimes more experience helps a unit improve. Not so much this time.
Oklahoma State came into this week ranked 131st nationally in yards allowed per play, a ranking that could get worse after allowing 6.3 yards per play to the Buffaloes.
Injuries played a role in this defensive collapse. The unit’s best player, Collin Oliver, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. But more importantly, the Cowboys struggled in exactly the same areas as last year: the unit de Nardo couldn’t stop the run with consistency and broke out time and time again. in the passing game.
The offensive stats aren’t as bad on paper considering Oklahoma State is a slightly better than average offense. But it’s still a terrible result considering the personnel.
It was as if Oklahoma State had forgotten the existence of Gordon, the preseason All-American running back. He had more than 15 carries—wait for this one–just three of the nine Big 12 games. Part of that is situational, as the Cowboys often fell behind early, but come on, it’s also inexcusable. Speaking of inexcusable: the terrible play of Oklahoma State’s offensive line, one of the most experienced in the country and even considered the best unit in the country according to 247Sports’ Blake Brockermeyer, who spent more than 10 years in as an NFL offensive lineman and who would. I know a thing or two about trench warfare. Oklahoma State ranked No. 98 nationally in rushing yards before contact. They blocked passes well, for what that’s worth, and were one of the better units in that metric. But the team’s perceived strength was nonetheless a weakness, and that’s a problem for offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn.
The team’s starting QB, super senior Alan Bowman, struggled with turnovers and continued to have trouble throwing the ball to the deepest areas of the field; an area of concern for the Cowboys the year before with Bowman at the helm.
Oklahoma State opted not to dive into the portal and grab a starting-caliber QB despite Bowman’s limitations in 2023. That cost the Cowboys any chance to compete.
What happens next?
There have been several rumors behind the scenes in recent weeks that Gundy may choose to retire. There were even members of his team wondering if Gundy might step down, according to sources, but Gundy ended that matter last week, saying “there’s no way” he would retire .
Could he be fired? Anyone could do it. But a $25 million buyout and Gundy’s overall cachet in Stillwater puts him on the “no” side of “probable.”
What will happen, however, is a shake-up of Gundy’s personnel — whether that’s his decision or one requested by athletic director Chad Weiberg doesn’t matter much.
Many of his assistants have been with him for years. Some, like Dunn, the offensive coordinator, have been with Gundy for more than a decade. But industry sources expect a significant personnel overhaul. The hiring of Nardo as defensive coordinator — a controversial move at the time Gundy recruited a D-II coach from Gannon University — was a failure. And Dunn, who took over the job in 2020, has yet to produce a top-50 offense in yards per play.
As for the players on the roster, many of the team’s stars will exhaust their eligibility and graduate. Others still eligible, like Gordon, will explore their options in the NFL.
Oklahoma State under Gundy since Big 12 realignment in 2012
| Year | W/L Registration | Pre AP | AP post | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 8-5 | Heart of Dallas Bowl-W | ||
| 2013 | 10-3 | 13 | 17 | Cotton bowl-L |
| 2014 | 7-6 | Cactus-W Bowl | ||
| 2015 | 10-3 | 20 | Sugar bowl-L | |
| 2016 | 10-3 | 21 | 11 | Alamo-W Bowl |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 10 | 14 | Camping World Bowl-W |
| 2018 | 7-6 | Liberty Bowl-W | ||
| 2019 | 8-5 | Texas Bowl-L | ||
| 2020 | 8-3 | 15 | 20 | Cheez-It Bowl-W |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 7 | Fiesta-W bowl | |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 12 | Bol-L Guaranteed Price | |
| 2023 | 10-4 | 16 | Texas Bowl-W | |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 17 |
So, the Cowboys will have to be big buyers in the transfer portal. They have to be after three straight recruiting classes (2023-25) ranked in the 50s. Gundy has always taken sneaky pride in building a winning program and developing All-Americans without elite recruiting classes, but ultimately luck runs out. And it is.
The No. 1 priority among many others will be finding a quarterback. The Cowboys will be in this market in the portal as it doesn’t appear younger options like Garrett Rangel are the future of the program; True freshman Maealiuaki Smith had his moments against Texas Tech two weeks ago, but showed his age with an 11-for-29, 70-yard, two-INT performance in Boulder. Gundy needs a proven winner in 2025.
Beyond quarterback, the Cowboys will add at nearly every position, especially on the offensive line, where the oldest unit in the sport will quickly become one of the least experienced due to graduation .
It’s a daunting overhaul for the sometimes stubborn 57-year-old head coach, who is coming off his first losing season since 2005. Gundy has been the epitome of consistency in the Big 12 over the past 20 years. recent years. Infrequent personnel changes and high school recruitment and development have been Gundy’s model. But now he’s in an uncomfortable position, well, he’s getting uncomfortable.
Drastic turnarounds are possible in the transfer portal era. They happen every year. But is Gundy ready to change everything that has defined him and his agenda over the past two decades to fix what isn’t working? We’re about to find out.