NFL Week 16 Predictions: ATS picks for every game Saturday

Dave Blezow makes his NFL Week 16 picks for Saturday’s games. All lines courtesy of BetMGM.

OK fellow soccer bettors, what do you call a team that outscores their opponents 39-3 in the second half and overtime and still can’t cover a -3.5 gap?

Answer: the Vikings.

Yes, the same team that is 11-3 but has only scored two points more than its opponents in 14 games, a near mathematical impossibility.

There have been results that have come to this handicapper in the past week that would be considered worse beatings, such as the Jets losing to the Lions in the slowest jailbreak reception in NFL history and the Patriots falling against the Raiders on one of those stupid side plays that at least came with the comic relief of seeing Chandler Jones flatten Mac Jones like he was Wile E. Coyote getting hit by an Acme truck.

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But the Vikings’ 39-36 “victory” over the Colts prompted a different, more resigned response: yes, numbers!

The Giants enter Minneapolis Saturday afternoon at 8-5-1. They have a negative 25-point differential despite the strong record, but appear to be carrying a good vibe following their prime-time win over Commanders last week.

The road underdog is a sweet spot for the Giants, who are 4-1 ATS in that role this season, and Daniel Jones is 15-5 ATS in his career. road dog, according to VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum.

I’ll leave the final word to Mike Roche, longtime reader of this column and star handicapper in the Mitton Family League betting contest: “The Giants defense will contain Kirk Cousins. It might take a Christmas miracle for a Giants win, but after picking up a big win last week in Washington, my bet is the Giants will cover.

Choice of the Giants against the Vikings: Giants +4

Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones
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Saturday

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. EST, PKB)

I admit that it’s difficult to accumulate as many points with a team that scored 10, 16 and 3 points during the three starts of Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens are still 9-5, and the alternative is a 5-9 South Dome team in 22-degree weather. Maybe the Ravens defense can pull a few the other way to help.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) vs. Houston Texans (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Although this line has moved dramatically in the direction of Houston, the low temperatures (21 degrees) make me want to wipe out the home team in hot weather. Derrick Henry drove for 219 yards on Oct. 30 at Houston, and I don’t think the Texans will enjoy trying to tackle him here.

Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry
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Seattle Seahawks (+10) vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1 p.m. ET, PKB)

New game for the Chiefs, but I will repeat what I wrote here last week and in several previous ones: do you notice that the Chiefs rarely cover the spread? They’re 3-10-1 ATS this season, a remarkable feat for an 11-3, first-place team. You don’t mind taking this number with Pete Carroll and Geno Smith at all.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Unlike the Chiefs, the best ATS team in the NFL this season is the Bengals at 11-3. Cincinnati has won six in a row, scoring at least 34 points in three of them. Even their low mark of 20 points in this streak could be enough to cover New England’s extremely limited offense.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (1 p.m. ET, PKB)

Sam Darnold will always remember the Detroit Lions, the Jets’ 48-17 win at Ford Field on his NFL debut. Although Darnold is 2-1 in his three games as a Panthers starter, he now faces a rising and opportunistic Lions team that beat the Jets in conditions similar to forecast 33 and sunny from Saturday.

Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold
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Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. CHICAGO BEARS (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

While the spread looks tasty and six of the Bills’ last seven wins have been 10 points or less, there’s this: In the last five games Justin Fields has played, he’s led the Bears in yards at floor. The Bears need to stop letting Fields try to be a one-man team, especially against a hard-hitting defense in 9-degree temperatures.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

If you’ve been paying attention to the running theme, you know where I’m coming from for this game that predicts 12 degrees, precipitation, and winds between 29 and 60 mph. That would be the NFL’s No. 5 rushing offense and not the team playing in Louisiana’s big dome.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7) vs. Washington Commanders (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)

The Commanders are a decent team that play a lot of close games, and that’s a pretty heavy ask for 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy. Still, only one thought remains of Washington’s loss to the Giants last week. This game was their shot, and they couldn’t make it. Now they cross the country in a short week to face a team that can really light it up. Difficult place.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (4:25 p.m. ET, PKB)

The line jumped three points to Dallas on the news MVP favorite Jalen Hurts was in danger of missing the game with a shoulder injury. I take that as a gift and have no problem backing Gardner Minshew, a scrapper who will put all the Eagles talent to good use on offense.

Gardner Minshew
Gardner Minshew
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Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network)

I will change and support the Raiders, a warm weather team that plays indoors in the 11 degree temperatures of western Pennsylvania. Although everyone remembers the great Franco Harris and the immaculate reception, I just think the Raiders have advantages in the three most important positions with Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and Lambeau-hardened Davante Adams.

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